Updates

Semi Final Predictions

So far predictions have been quite inaccurate, but as Van Gaal would put it; it’s a process.

*Please pardon the inconsistent formatting of the tables, I’m trying to find a work around it still!

TTSF: Time to Shoot For
TTSA: Time to Shoot Against
xGF: Expected Goals For
xGA: Expected Goals Against
xGF/SF: Expected Goals For per Shot For
xGA/SA: Expected Goals Against per Shot Against

Portugal vs. Wales

Average Possession

            TTSF 

            TTSA

           xGF

            xGA

                 xGF/SF

          xGA/SA

Portugal

55.1%

156.6

252.6

7.4

4

0.078

0.083

Wales

47.3%

212.9

222.3

5.4

5

0.090

0.078

This has been a recurring theme with Portugal, they take a high volume of shots, but ones of low quality, and Wales take good quality shots in small quantity. The one thing going against Portugal this time will be that Pepe is out injured. Meaning that they’ll have to play Bruno Alves at the back. Portugal were already very insecure at the back and now with Pepe gone, there will be more areas for Wales to exploit, especially given how Alves has had no playing time in the tournament yet. It’s not all good for Wales though, they’ve got their own issue in Aaron Ramsey’s suspension (seriously though, how does two yellows in five games = suspension?).

Either way, both teams will have to adjust given their altered starting xi’s. Portugal’s inability to finish off games just tells me that Wales will edge it. Wales will win the game 2-1 in extra time.


Germany vs. France

Average Possession

            TTSF 

            TTSA

           xGF

            xGA

                 xGF/SF

          xGA/SA

Germany

63%

179.1

302.7

10.1

1.9

0.106

0.058

France

57.2%

171.6

281.9

8.6

3.6

0.096

0.088

This might as well just be the finals. Both teams have performed exceptionally well so far, but after Germany’s tight game against Italy they’d have realized that they have to be more convincing in front of goal. Gomez, Khedira, and Schweinsteiger are all probably not going to play. And as a neutral fan I’m actually a little excited because we might get to see players like Sane and Weigl get good amount of playing time. The thing with France is that against Iceland, I think they figured out how their team plays best, this paired with the fact that Germany have a depleted team gives them a slight edge over the Germans.
There’s that, and then we can recall what happened the last time Germany played the hosts in a tournament semi final (Germany 7-1 Brazil). For the record that’s not something I’m factoring into my predictions.

I think Germany will go on to the finals, I just don’t see them crashing out in a semi finals like this. Scoreline: Germany 2-1 France.


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More on TTS: https://deepxg.com/2016/04/05/time-to-shot/
xG data: https://twitter.com/MC_of_A

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